Monthly NTA update - May 2026

Welcome to the monthly update for Neverwinter Fund I SLP for May 2026.

The fund returned -2.96% over the month of May, giving back part of April’s strong recovery but remaining comfortably above the lows reached earlier in 2026.

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This softer month came against a backdrop of continued strength in global equities, with AI-stocks leading major US indices higher and valuation multiples on the NASDAQ 100 now sitting close to the upper end of their historical range.

BTC, by contrast, has underperformed, holding in the low‑ to mid‑$70k to low‑$80k range for much of the month.

We see a few reasons for this divergence. First, while equity valuations have expanded meaningfully, Bitcoin’s on‑chain valuation metrics such as MVRV remain near fair value levels rather than at the extremes historically associated with cycle tops. In other words, equities are pricing in a lot of future growth, whereas BTC is still working through the aftermath of last year’s drawdown and a long period of risk‑off positioning in digital assets. We think this is a temporary setting.

Second, the crypto market structure remains heavily influenced by derivatives, and as we noted last month, the recent rebound has been led more by futures than by broad‑based spot demand. 

Zoom out however, and the structural story continues to move strongly in crypto’s favour. Long-term holder supply remains near record highs, and exchange BTC reserves have fallen to late 2017 levels, both very strong indicators. 

In terms of spot ETF flows, May was a story of two halves. The beginning saw some of the strongest inflows of the year. Halfway through, however, the story flipped on its head resulting in a net negative month for ETF flows. 

2026 has already seen countless milestones in terms of institutional allocators becoming more comfortable with crypto. In March, Kraken became the first Krypto platform to be granted a US Federal Reserve Master account. In the same month, an Indiana court passed legislation requiring state pension plans to offer at least one cryptocurrency investment option.

This kind of progress takes years to achieve, but what we’ve seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg. We believe we are still in the very early stages of a 10+ year institutional adoption curve, and that most allocators who will ultimately own crypto have not yet completed, or even started, the work to implement their allocations.

In that context, we see May’s underperformance versus equity markets as part of the normal unevenness of an early recovery. Crypto appears to be climbing out of a deep sentiment hole while a large base of institutional capital is only just beginning to engage. We remain cautiously optimistic for the months ahead.